PC Gaming 's Not Dead Yet (2005 Review)

[TriniXaeno]

Just read this awesome article and thought it fit to share.

Touches on an age old argument that we have been having on the boards. The Death of the PC Gaming market.

I think the bit about adopting new distribution models has the most credence. Really loved the way s2 games sold Savage online, direct download. Steam is doing the same for HL2. Now even EA has gotten into the act by offering BF2 Special Forces over their new service, "Downloader".

A great trend that could shake up the industry. I hope many more follow suit.

Read on.

Business Week
Next Generation


2005: PC Gaming's Not Dead Yet
Those who view 2005 as yet another year of decline for PC gaming aren't seeing the full picture. PC Gamer's Daniel Morris points towards areas of growth and creative innovation and excellence, like Civilization IV...



Like the old man in the Monty Python sketch -- tossed out with the plague despite his pleas of health -- PC gaming faced a skeptical industry in 2005. But a closer inspection of the "corpse" reveals an underlying market that not only held strong but also grew in the hardcore genres.

From both a critical and commercial perspective, PC gaming turned in another of its increasingly stealthy years of quiet, reliable profits for companies that made smart investments in it.

The most superficial analysis of the PC gaming market - i.e., the NPD summary of retail sales - showed yet another year-on-year tumble. Analysts (both professional and amateur) lined up to declare the platform dead. But there was a more sophisticated analysis to be made, and it pointed to continuing opportunity in the PC space.

Relying on NPD's number blinds one to the ongoing evolution of PC game distribution. The key insight, as summarized in a new report from IM Consulting (the market-intelligence unit at Ignited Minds), is that "the PC game software market is much more robust than a cursory glance at the data suggests" (our analysis) becomes a call to publishers to recognize that the PC market can be a very lucrative and profitable place to publish, if the games are done properly in the right genres."

Biggest genres
If we were to set apart the three biggest genres in PC gaming - first-person shooter, real-time strategy, and RPG (including MMOs) - and consider them as a market unto themselves, we would see a market that is in fact growing. (Estimates vary as to how much, though the consensus among senior publishing executives I've discussed this with range from 5 to 10 percent.)

Needless to say, this growth has been achieved without anything like the marketing muscle placed behind the consoles - nor, for that matter, with anything like the benefit of a fair shake at retail, where the PC shelves continue to be squeezed.

Creatively and critically speaking, the market has rarely been stronger. Any review of the creative year in PC gaming should start with the tally from the E3 Game Critics Awards nominations. Two PC games nominated for Game of Show (compared to one Xbox 360 game); the PC's Spore nominated for Best Original Game (not a single 360 game was nominated in this category); three PC titles nominated for Best RPG (compared to one 360 title, which was Elder Scrolls IV: Oblivion, a PC co-launch); and PC games taking all five of the Best Strategy Game nominations. PC games took four of the five nominations for Best Online Multiplayer Game at this year's E3, while not a single Xbox 360 game made the cut in this category.

Millions of gamers
It's debatable whether any other platform produced a second-half lineup with the impact of F.E.A.R., Civilization IV, Battlefield 2, and Age of Empires III. And this is to say nothing of the burgeoning MMO category, where World of Warcraft and many others continue to attract millions of gamers.

Yet the PC gets no love from retailers, and little more from some of the major publishers. Shelf space contracted in most of the major retail chains. EB Games suspended its policy of accepting PC game trade-ins. Unwilling, or perhaps unable, to separate the overall decline in PC retail sales from the growth in the triple-A high end, publishers were tempted to throw in with retailers in a large-scale abandonment of the category.

Online sales
With this in mind, perhaps the single biggest accomplishment of 2005 was the online sales (via Steam) of Valve's opus, Half-Life 2. The company keeps its figures close to vest, but reliable estimates indicate that perhaps as much as half of the game's formidable sales total was achieved via Steam.

Importantly, these online sales did not come at the expense of the game's retail performance. Valve's Doug Lombardi says that Valve "saw increased sales via Steam without cannibalization of retail forecasts." According to Lombardi, NPD's retail-sales charts are understating the strength of PC games sales, and will increasingly understate that strength as the PC publishing model moves online to alternatives like Steam.

Publishers (and some developers) took notice. EA has unveiled Downloader as its Steam equivalent, and made its Battlefield 2: Special Forces expansion available for direct purchase. Smaller players have undertaken full-scale projects to migrate their businesses to direct-download models.

2005 was a year that proved our industry needs a newer and wiser perception of the PC gaming market. As IM Consulting put it, "Instead of giving up on the PC game market because retail sales are lagging, we urge publishers to adapt their distribution strategies to the changing landscape."

[TrinireturnofGamez]

actually online sales for hl2 mean ALOT , they would be getting 100% of the monies involved vs getting a fraction when someone buy's a box copy in a store , so a Steam sale is worth 3 or more box sales , so monetary wise its like Half Life II sold 6 million copies instead of 4 million .
   PC gaming will never die ,no matter what those idiots in the press say, hardware and graphics  and cost DO NOT matter half as much as gameplay and selection , which the PC will beat any console with.. When's the last time you played an RTS for a console?
     
   When Vista hits i think PC gaming will get a  minor boost,  its supposed to need a good DX9 video card at least to show off its 3d interface , most pcs will be equipped with better graphics cards  which will allow more pcs to  support decent quality gaming , vs now where most pcs are equipped with a crappy direct X 6 or 7 integrated chipset...

[shivadee]

Just because a handfull of people can say "PC Gaming will never die" compared to the extremely large number that own a PS2,XBOX and GCN does not mean it is true. PC gaming is not something you are going to win new gamers or up and comming gamers into as easily as a console. PC gamers are few, but those few really have the best of the best in that sense.

TuneroftheGamez dont ever....EVER try to compare PC sales to console sales. Your @ss will be handed to you by sheer volume anyday any time. The PC platform is the most powerful platform yes, but at a very high price.

I myself am going back to PC gaming mainly because of the way events unfolded and my career. For me the console is the END product, for a gamer it usually is too. A PC for gaming is really something you must have alot of money to invest in. Many people do not have that, or even care to invest it in something like that. PC gaming is very expensive, but for someone in the profession like me it is worth it. Im getting all the consoles anyway...but im very interested in the MMORPG of the PC.

Actually in the recent Game Informer they believe the PC is going to be the platform that will lead to the most inovation in the next years.

and to answer your question wiht another..when is the last time i played an RTS PERIOD?All i play is Starcraft...off and on. not my cup of tea really.

[TriniXaeno]

Yeah, all platforms have their place.

Again, the argument that PC wtfpwns because it offers the best RPG and RTS experience can easily be countered by the console's domination of Fighting and Sport.

Two juxtaposed genres.

I won't even dare ask to see the sales figures of Fifa 2006 for PC vs that of PS2/XBOX

Nor Guilty Gear X, Tekken 5, Soul Calibur 3, etc...

That said, Trini made an ultra powerful point in the fact that a STEAM sale = 3 retail sales. That math could be a wake up call for the PC market where only low tier shareware class games have enjoyed such a sales delivery medium (not counting Doom many moons ago)

Another powerful point! A more demanding Microsoft Windows will raise the bar on the average PCS gaming potential. Making 3D Cards more ubiquitous. Good riddance to that onboard Intel Extreme Graphics nonsense!

Retail competition helps with that also. Already, many laptops are shipping standard with 9600 / FX 5200 class 3D performance. Still not great, but it opens up a whole new gaming world to the masses.

Thirdly, while hard core PC Gamers are less in number than console gamers, do not forget that casual PC Gamers out number 'em.

Those are the guys playing Solitaire and Hearts on PCs bought as home appliances on terms at the furniture store / mall.

Now let me defeat my own point. There already exists a perfectly workable online sales / delivery mechanism to attack that portion of the market. Popcap and others create games specifically for that segment and yet they do not respond well to it. Often content to play the handicapped versions offered for free.

Not really a "hot" market it seems as they really aren't passionate enough about games to throw money behind it. The weak bastards!

lol, (better to destroy the point myself than letting Shiva/Laertes take me to the cleaners)

[crackerjack]

damn you beago for having me read this lengthy tale of man but a point made

[Kaizen]

viva la resistance

O_O     "bfg" ...
come ut 2007!

[TriniXaeno]

can't agree with u there laertes.

One only has to play World of Warcraft / Guild Wars / Lineage II / Ultima / Never Winter Nights / etc... to understand how ridiculously superior the PC RPG scene is when compared to the console's excuse for an RPG genre.

Don't say "online" like it's a bad word. That is the PCs strong point and has been for some time. That has driven both the RTS, FPS and RPG genre on the platform for a decade.

Is like comparing CounterStrike 5v5  and DuckHunt 1 v Ducks.

I still maintain that the PC pwns the RPG/RTS/FPS scene.